Another weekend, another war – the geopolitical environment is a mess, and AI, private credit, and domestic politics are also generating troublesome headlines.
History tells investors to expect turbulence in the months ahead; however, odds still favor that the U.S. stock market will maintain its bullish trend over the longer-term. As we noted in last month’s VantagePoint, a drawdown has occurred prior to every midterm election since 1946. Incredibly, all of these sell-offs have been followed by a sizeable rally. Prior to the military action versus Iran, this commentary was going to dig deeper into the pivotal dynamics influencing early year trading.
Since last summer, both the U.S. and international equity markets have been transitioning to new leadership. Small and midcap indices are continuing to outperform the mega-tech dominated S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Stocks in the U.S. are faring relatively well this week considering the hostilities overseas.
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CIO Vantage Point | March 2026
History tells investors to expect turbulence in the months ahead; however, odds still favor that the U.S. stock market will maintain its bullish trend over the longer-term. As we noted in last month’s VantagePoint, a drawdown has occurred prior to every midterm election since 1946. Incredibly, all of these sell-offs have been followed by a sizeable rally.
